The web is an exciting place, things move at breakneck speed and the competitive landscape shifts on a daily basis. Billions dollar companies are grown from multi million dollar investments, good ideas and reasonably good technologies.
By the way, I think most people realise that the equity stake taken by Mirosoft in Facebook was not a pure equity investment. It was a mixture of a pre-payment for an advertising deal and an equity stake and therefore it doesn't place a clear valuation on Facebook.
Microsoft's advertising on Facebook is atrocious. Who in their right mind clicks on those banner adds anyway?
Less and less people according to Businessweek.
I've think that Facebook have to be careful not to become the new AOL. Social networking is a relatively new phenomenon and the market has yet to be played out in full.
What Facebook are doing is building a walled garden which holds the user community inside. I have my Linkedin page and I have my Facebook page, but what am I missing out on by not participating in myspace, bebo, ning, xing, friendster?
I would like my profile to be on the open web but I still want the functionality of privacy and friend finding and linking, sharing pictures, news and movies with my friends only. Registration with Facebook should not be required to connect with me.
Technically, this is a trivial challenge and is already being addressed see
Slap in The Facebook for a discussion on this and the
open friend project for more technical information. The crux of the matter is that there is no way to define social relationships on the open internet and social networking sites have stepped in to provide this and have been successful at it.
The Google OpenSocial initiative is not addressing this as far as I understand - it is just addressing the development of widgets for social networks and porting these applications to participating sites. Not really a big deal as sooner or later some smart developer would have created an interface library for this anyway.
What is more important is that as social technology matures, the internet will reassert its open and free principals and closed walled gardens will not be favoured.
This is fundamental to the basis of the internet:
openness and freedom, not freedom from constraint but the more important one: freedom to participate.